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If Donald Trump wins the 2024 presidential election and then cuts all aid to Ukraine, what will happen with the war? Using some lines on maps, this video shows how the basic logic of the argument that it will end falls apart. The main consequence of a change to the balance of power is alter what the parties demand in negotiations, not to change whether war occurs or not. However, there can be some second-order consequences that do alter the probability of conflict. This video explores those, showing that cutting aid could indeed end the war---though not on terms favorable to Ukraine. However, there are just as many reasons to think that it will not.

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0:00 Trump Wins Presidency, Cuts Aid
2:05 Assumptions that We Will Make
5:08 The End Aid, End the War Logic
6:00 Who Gives Aid to Ukraine?
7:56 Russian Goals versus Ideal Outcomes
10:40 The Lines on Maps Logic
13:48 How Aid Affects Private Information
15:32 How Aid Affects Shifting Power
17:05 How Aid Affects Leader Benefits

Media licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0):

By Government.ru:
http://services.government.ru/press/photos/

By Kremlin.ru:
http://tours.kremlin.ru/tour/senate
http://en.kremlin.ru/catalog/keywords/78/events/50329
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/58906
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/trips/61948
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/68785
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/69465
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/70742
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71452
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/71496
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73083
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73084
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73411
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73585
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73732
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/73798